ASSA2002

The ASSA2002 AIDS and Demographic model is a model of the AIDS epidemic in South Africa, released in July of 2004. Although it has been superseded by the ASSA2003 model, the model is structurally similar to the ASSA2003 model, and the documents describing the ASSA2002 model assumptions remain relevant to the ASSA2003 model. Two versions of the model are available: a ‘full’ version, which models each of South Africa’s population groups separately, and a ‘lite’ version, which does not split the population by population group.

Models

ASSA2002 'lite' version

ASSA2002 "full" version

AssumptionsProv

User Information

ASSA2002 AIDS and Demographic Models: User Guide

Documents Describing the ASSA2002 Model

Dorrington R.E., Bradshaw D., Johnson L. and Budlender D. (2004) The Demographic Impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa: National Indicators for 2004. Joint publication by the Centre for Actuarial Research, the Burden of Disease Research Unit (Medical Research Council) and the Actuarial Society of South Africa [http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/Research_Units/CARE]

Johnson L. and Dorrington R.E. (2006) Modelling the demographic impact of HIV/AIDS in South Africa and the likely impact of interventions. Demographic Research. Vol. 14: 541-74 [http://www.demographic-research.org/]

Johnson L., Dorrington R.E. and Matthews A. (2006) An uncertainty analysis and sensitivity analysis of the ASSA2002 AIDS and Demographic model. Centre for Actuarial Research working paper [http://www.commerce.uct.ac.za/Research_Units/CARE]

Johnson L., Bradshaw D. and Dorrington R.E. (2005) The HIV/AIDS epidemic in South Africa: historical development and future prospects. Presented at the Second South African AIDS Conference, Durban, 7 – 10 June 2005

Papers that have used the ASSA2002 model

Lawn S.D., Bekker L., Middelkoop K., Myer L. and Wood R. (2006) Impact of HIV on the epidemiology of tuberculosis in a peri-urban community in South Africa: the need for age-specific interventions. Clinical Infectious Diseases. 42: 1040-7

Norman R, Bradshaw D, Schneider M, Pieterse D, Groenewald P. Revised Burden of Disease Estimates for the Comparative Risk Factor Assessment. South Africa 2000. Methodological Notes. Cape Town: Medical Research Council, 2006. Available at: http://www.mrc.ac.za/bod/bod.htm.

Johnson L. (2004) Estimation of the effects of HAART and treatment requirements in South Africa. HIV Pathogenesis and Treatment Conference, Durban, 1–2 Oct 2004.

Day C. and Gray A. (2005). Health and related indicators. In P. Ijumba and P. Barron, Eds. South African Health Review 2005, Health Systems Trust. [http://www.hst.org.za/publications/682]